Smart parlays on top of on-chain prediction markets.
ParlayMarket lets you construct and settle parlays backed by existing on-chain prediction markets. A dedicated parlay engine, resolver layer, and risk-managed book behind the book.
Designed for sophisticated prediction market users, builders, and liquidity partners.
| Leg | Include | Leg prob | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| US election · Pres. | 0.61 | 0.61 | |
| Senate control | 0.54 | 0.54 | |
| Turnout > 2016 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
Illustration only. This mini ticket is computed locally with static leg probabilities. The app applies similar multiplicative logic to live markets.
ParlayMarket is a dedicated parlay engine on top of liquid prediction markets. It prices, routes, and settles parlays while tracking exposure and resolution in a structured way.
The engine ingests binary prediction markets from supported venues, normalises metadata and resolution criteria, and filters for markets that are parlay-safe.
Users pick legs; the engine computes fair joint probabilities, applies configurable edge, and quotes a parlay stake / max payout. Risk limits are checked per event and per portfolio.
When underlying markets resolve, ParlayMarket settles tickets according to a rulebook, reconciles with external outcomes, and produces an auditable settlement and P&L log.
The system is designed as a clean separation between user experience, the parlay engine, and the underlying markets. This makes it easy to start centralized and progressively move pieces on-chain.
- Web app (GitHub Pages) for parlay construction and ticket history.
- Account / session management and basic limits.
- Future wallet-connect support for non-custodial flows.
- Market ingestion, normalization, and eligibility filters.
- Pricing, risk limits, and ticket lifecycle tracking.
- Resolver module with deterministic rules and dispute windows.
- Existing on-chain prediction markets used as underlying liquidity.
- Optional hedging and routing logic.
- Extensible to multiple venues and oracle providers.
v0 can run as a fully centralized engine with clear logs and rules. Later iterations can migrate the parlay engine and resolver interface on-chain while preserving the same user experience.
ParlayMarket is not just another app; it is infrastructure. It can be used directly by traders or embedded into other products as a parlay or structured-outcome layer.
Build structured views (e.g. election sweeps, macro releases, narratives) as a single ticket instead of manually legging into multiple markets. See combined pricing, max payout, and correlated exposure.
Integrate ParlayMarket as a backend to support “parlay view” UX on top of existing markets without rebuilding pricing and settlement logic. Expose it as an API or white-label component.
Use the parlay engine to offer additional product surface area (parlays, baskets, structured tickets) while keeping the underlying liquidity and resolution logic anchored to your venue.
Join as an early tester or collaborator. These forms register interest only; they are not offers to provide or solicit wagers.
The initial focus is a centralized, transparent engine on top of a single venue. The roadmap expands along three axes: robustness, integrations, and progressive decentralisation.
- GitHub Pages front-end and parlay builder.
- Centralized engine with a single prediction venue.
- Paper trading and simulated hedging; logged P&L.
- Real tickets with clear rules and settlement logs.
- Risk limits per event and per portfolio.
- Configurable resolver stack and multi-feed rules.
- On-chain parlay abstractions and resolver interface.
- External integrations and white-label partners.
- Open specification for parlay-native prediction infra.
Just like in a classic arcade game such as Galaga, you can pick a temporary nickname and see how a sample parlay might place on a local leaderboard. This is a demo; there is no wagering here.
| Rank | Player | Parlay legs | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | GALAGA_1CC | 5 | +420% |
| #2 | MacroSweep | 4 | +260% |
| #3 | ElectionStacker | 3 | +180% |
Enter a nickname and a hypothetical return to add a row locally. This does not send data to a server.
| Rank | Player | Parlay legs | Return |
|---|
A few clarifications about what ParlayMarket is and is not in its initial form.
No. ParlayMarket is a parlay and resolution layer built on top of existing prediction markets. It uses them as underlying liquidity and outcome references. The long-term direction is infra, not a competing exchange.
v0 uses transformed implied probabilities from supported markets, applies joint-probability logic under explicit assumptions, and adds a configurable house edge. The pricing model is transparent and can be inspected in the docs.
The resolver module aligns with the underlying venue's resolution for each market, but adds structured rules, timestamps, and audit logs. If a market is voided or ambiguous, the corresponding parlay legs follow a published rulebook.
The first iteration deliberately runs as a centralized engine for speed and safety. The architecture is designed so that pricing, ticket tracking, and resolver interfaces can later be migrated on-chain without changing how users construct parlays.